[Bader] Le Kraken semble éviter les joueurs les moins susceptibles d’être sélectionnés au repêchage

2 Comments

1. SiccSemperTyrannis 1 an ago

   Tweet – https://twitter.com/ByronMBader/status/1821934288545399189

   The « groups » Bader references are 5 groups that he classifies draftable players into based on their probability of becoming NHLers. Here’s a tweet with background on that system

   https://twitter.com/ByronMBader/status/1813254635609813344

   >Teams always talk about wanting to draft an « impact » player with their pick, especially the high ones.

   >Impact star players mostly come from two small groups. There’s 5 ways I’ve started grouping players in terms of their normalized production within their draft year. Here’s a look at the forwards…

   >Group 1, a very small elite group, is the most likely to make the NHL (76%) as well as become a star (43%).

   >Group 2 is a larger but still rather small group where still 60% turn into NHLers and 20% turn into stars.

   >Group 3 is a large group of above average producers. 35% of them make the NHL and 5% turn into stars.

   >Group 4 is largely a younger low producing DY group. 18% make the NHL and ~0.5% turn into stars.

   >Group 5 is mostly low producing older prospects. 16% make the NHL and almost none turn into stars. This is a huge group that makes up nearly 50% of forwards drafted every year.

   >As to what’s in the groups specifically. There’s a lot of iterations for each group. As well, as of right now I don’t fully want to reveal what’s in each group (once it’s on the line it’s on the line forever!). So for now I’ll just keep that to myself.

2. Radu47 1 an ago

   Just to reiterate before the comments roll in: NHLe alone predicts drafts better than NHL mgmt and ideally is used among many tools