Je suis tombé sur un article intéressant d’il y a deux ans (Daily Faceoff) qui plonge un peu dans la régression de l’âge dans la LNH, y compris un blog de l’actuel directeur général de la Caroline, Eric Tulsky.
L’article analyse 10 ans de données UFA avec un âge moyen des joueurs UFA de 29,3 ans.
J’ai trouvé cela pertinent puisque l’âge moyen de la liste des Islanders se situe actuellement à 29,2 ans.
Links:
Face-à-face quotidienne – La plupart des signatures UFA à long terme s’avèrent encore pires que vous ne le pensez
Eric Tulsky – Comment les taux de score dans la LNH changent avec l’âge
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shrivman
4 Comments
I’ve always thought fans should be more annoyed at how long it takes players to reach UFA status. That’s the single biggest reason why free agent deals tend to be such albatrosses. Yeah, no one wants to lose their guys, but the excessively inflated value of young stars, more than the draft lottery, is what creates the biggest tanking incentives.
I’d be interested by seeing the age distribution over those 10 years as well as the % of players that end up getting long term UFA. The earliest age most players would even be eligible is 24-26, right? Unless they are a superstar or face of the franchise, they are looking at 2-3 year extensions or 2-3 year contracts at new orgs. I think this data makes sense, but I also think it suggests that teams use long term UFAs on players that have benefits beyond raw performance.
Micah Blake McCurdy, the mathematician that runs HockeyViz, did a similar thing back in 2022. Breaks down aging curves for shot rate impacts at 5v5, special teams, finishing ability, setting (passing) ability, penalty taking/drawing, and goaltending. Breaks it all down by position too. Very interesting stuff https://hockeyviz.com/txt/age22
Yes but there are players that don’t fit this curve and every GM is convinced it is the guy they are about to sign.