Qui encourager – Suivi du tableau de bord à l’extérieur de la ville – 24 mars 2026
—
aschwan41
@Sénateurs d'Ottawa
Qui encourager – Suivi du tableau de bord à l’extérieur de la ville – 24 mars 2026
—
aschwan41
11 Comments
Friendly reminder that the model’s margin of error is about 0.5%. We want:
– Leafs over Boston in regulation (lol)
– Carolina over Montreal in regulation
– Ottawa over Detroit in regulation
– Chicago over Detroit in regulation
– Philadelphia over Columbus in regulation
– Colorado over Pittsburgh in regulation
Fixed an issue with my sim engine where it wasn’t properly mapping RWs and ROWs on « forced outcome » games. It would:
1. Sim the remainder of the season, everything worked there. Then was then supposed to:
2. Sim the remainder of the season « assuming the outcome of a given game ». It would call `pullRemainingSchedule()`, which provides the sim engine with a list of games to pass through `gameSimulator()` In an effort to save cpu cycles (or whatever you wanna call it), I do not regenerate the schedule every sim, as generating the schedule hits the NHL API once for every remaining day in the season. What it didn’t do was **remove the game who’s outcome I just forced.** It would re-sim the game, with slightly altered team stats. That, combined with not properly mapping RWs and ROWs meant it was severely under-valuing winning your own games. Making that change increased the Sens chance of making the playoffs with a win last night from +0.7% to +6.2%.
Going to be a crazy night. We play Detroit with our best D out. Boston gets to play the leafs of all teams and the islanders get to play Chicago. Nothing is easy lol
Finally, some company in the cheering squad
Cheering for the Leafs? Ugh, fine… for the greater good…
Ewww go blue team.
+26.30% (to 76.49%) best case scenario. Anything less and I’ll be disappointed.
Ottawa’s playoff odds are 0.3 better with an overtime win (+12.8) than a regulation win (+12.5)?
How would we increase our odds more with a leafs OT win instead of regulation?
*Whom
Go Road Teams Yayyyy
The Leafs have never had a cheering squad this big before lol