Je n’ai pas les cotes des séries éliminatoires. Les flyers sont à 14%. Ottawa est à 40% mais a exactement les mêmes points et la même force de calendrier que nous (seulement 1 g en main). C’est beaucoup plus difficile d’accrocher la 3ème place dans leur division que dans la nôtre. MON est à 82, NYI est à 79 – fondamentalement la même chose que les jokers.
—
scratchydaitchy
15 Comments
I’m not a math whiz but I have no idea why Ottawa has such better odds.
It seems the Flyers have the extra chance if NYI drop right off.
Both wildcard teams are Atlantic teams.
Depends where you’re getting the odds from. If it’s moneypuck then they’re probably using advanced stats to infer which teams are likely to play better, regardless of schedule. The Flyers underlying metrics are terrible and the Sens have been pretty good lately.
The percentages are not based only on current points. Models simulate the rest of the season thousands of times and calculate how often a team ends up in a playoff position. Inputs include:
• Remaining schedule difficulty
• Home/away splits
• Team strength ratings (goal differential, expected goals, Elo-type ratings)
• Regulation vs OT win probabilities
• Number of games remaining
• Probability of each opponent winning their other games
Well you see, you have to add in the “it seems like we do this shit every year“-factor so they already know we’re gonna miss the playoffs.
If Flyers can beat CBJ tonight, it will be a huge 4 pt game. They also have 3 games vs. Detroit, which will all be 4pt games. I think if the Flyers can go at least 11-6 over their remaining 17 games, they might have a chance
but have you taken flyera into account?
To add to other comments, the Flyers play 8 games in the last 13 days of the season. That’s gonna be an incredibly difficult stretch to keep up good form
Flyers remaining schedule is tough. Big majority of games remaining vs playoff/bubble teams
The two wild card teams right now are Boston and Detroit, who are both in the same division as Ottawa, so I’d assume they have more head to head games left, which could be huge swings in the standings. Also, some of the early tiebreakers are regulation wins and regulation and overtime wins(which doesn’t count shootout wins) where the senators are doing significantly better than the Flyers
Magic number is 24 pts some of those points are worth more than others, also take into account our abysmal metro and eastern conference record
Some geeks with their xg spreadsheet run simulations and people put stock into it for some reason
Does strength of schedule have anything to do with it?
I don’t know all that goes into those odds but Ottawa has a game in hand on everyone else, and they can realistically win a tiebreaker if it came to it. Flyers have less regulations wins than almost everyone, if they tie in points they’re finishing lower than all those teams
This is just to get you to go to fan duels and bet on games.
The formula is heavily weighted with the xFlyera factor.