Avec la conversation récente sur le manque de buts marqués à 5 contre 5, j’ai pensé publier les totaux de cette saison. Lucas Raymond compte 16 buts à force égale, suivi de Debrincat. Ils se classent respectivement 67e et 70e dans la LNH. Le prochain Wing est Patrick Kane au #147. Assez médiocre par rapport aux autres équipes de calibre éliminatoire.
Détroit a un pourcentage de tirs de 4,69 % à 5 contre 5, le deuxième pire de la LNH. Seul le New Jersey avait un pire pourcentage de tirs à 5 contre 5. Cela peut en grande partie s’expliquer par l’endroit d’où Détroit tire, voici comment les Red Wings ont terminé en fonction de l’endroit où viennent les tirs :
Tirs à haut danger : #25 dans la LNH à peine devant les Rangers de New York
Tirs à danger moyen : #15 dans la LNH, mieux.
Tirs à faible danger : #9 dans la LNH, horrible. Un nombre écrasant de tirs de Détroit proviennent de tirs à faible danger.
Les objectifs attendus sont différents. Debrincat a terminé au 20e rang de la LNH, une sacrée saison pour lui. Emmitt Finnie a été spectaculaire pour un rookie en terminant #75 devant Stamkos, Tuch et Schmaltz. Kasper était le suivant au numéro 98. Finnie et Kasper étaient tous deux aux prises avec des pourcentages de tirs très faibles, celui de Kasper étant l’un des plus bas de la LNH pour les attaquants. Il n’a pas pu obtenir de répit toute la saison.
Comme tout le monde le sait désormais, le problème flagrant vient de Rasmussen et Appleton, qui se situent au bas de chaque catégorie offensive, en particulier la création de tirs. Compher avait des chiffres corrects, mais compte tenu de son temps de jeu important, ils n’étaient pas géniaux non plus. Copp n’est pas génial, mais son pourcentage de tir indique qu’il devrait régresser à un moment donné. MBN (n°4 sur les ailes pour les tirs au but toutes les 60 minutes) et Nate Danielson (n°10) seront des ajouts utiles à une équipe qui a du mal à obtenir des tirs au but.
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CMCdaGoat
11 Comments
I would love to see our shooting percentage for and against in each of those categories, but I don’t know if it’s available. There’s certainly some memory bias, but I swear our low danger shooting % for is nearly 0%. Pucks through traffic *never* seem to go in our favor, whereas something hitting a shin and going in our net seems like an inevitability each game.
Nice info!
I think a lot of it comes down to a lack of forcheck and being a perimeter team. I’m not sure what we « need » honestly because we have to get to those gritty areas and make our presence known. I would rather have a holmstrom goals being waved off problem than a no one in front of the net problem.
Seeing Compher with more 5v5 points than Larkin is a big red flag. Larkin needs to be better at even strength.
And I know Rasmussen is the new Ericsson for everyone but for some reason, the Wings win more when he’s in the lineup. Leads me to wonder if his deployment allows better or more even deployment of other players, better balancing our lines.
On a completely separate note from my other comment, let’s look at the ranks compared to the rest of our immediate peer group:
**High Danger Shots For**
Ottawa: 168 (7th)
Buffalo: 147 (16th)
Boston: 142 (T20th)
Detroit: 138 (25th)
Montreal: 136 (29th)
So, Ottawa aside, we’re not much different than our peers
**Medium Danger Shots For**
Ottawa: 494 (11th)
Buffalo: 486 (12th)
Detroit: 469 (14th)
Montreal: 464 (T18th)
Boston: 436 (26th)
Boston noticeably poor, Ottawa and Buffalo slightly ahead, but not majorly.
**Low Danger Shots For**
Buffalo: 2017 (8th)
Detroit: 2016 (9th)
Boston: 2006 (11th)
Ottawa: 1991 (14th)
Montreal: 1868 (25th)
We’re on par with Buffalo and Boston. Ottawa’s numbers can be explained with simply taking more higher quality shots. Montreal obviously lacking.
Once again, the data shows that chance generation, especially compared to our direct peers, is not our problem. Some of the discrepancy is absolutely finishing talent. And some of the discrepancy is that, all year long, Buffalo, Montreal, and Boston won every single coin flip that we lost.
Another note is that we rank better in high danger shots *against* (10th) than any of those teams except Ottawa, while Montreal and Boston are among the worst in the league. Buffalo is a tad bit behind us. We’re not as strong in Medium Danger Shots Against, but still considerably better than Boston, Buffalo, and Montreal. Low Danger Shots Against is where we rank the worst, but not meaningfully different than Boston and still ahead of Buffalo. Montreal has very few of these (probably because they give up more high+medium danger shots).
Our 5v5 *play* is not the issue. It’s the results around the net.
When you have what basically amounts to a good first line (cat/larkin/raymond) and a decent 3rd line (finnie/copp/kane), and the rest of your line up is made up of scraps and jerseys….thus is gonna happen.
The wings just don’t win any matchups with a bottom 9 made up of cat and 8 players being asked to domireggan they are capable of or care to do.
We need a 2c who can put up 60+ points and we need it now.
The flaw with this kind of analysis is when a player passes up shooting opportunities. Raymond, for example, should probably be higher than 6th in expected 5v5 goals but he passes up so many potential shots that’s where he ends up. Larkin and Cat have similar shot and shot attempt volume, while Raymond is way lower in both categories.
Really hoping Kasper and Finnie were just unlucky at converting xG into actual goals, and they’re not just Copp/Rasmussen in the making.
Nice to see Finnie and Kasper high in xG, tells me their offense will come on as they develop the touch.
I’m totally convinced this team is trying too hard to play defense. They’re too far back because they think that’s how you play shutdown defense, and what makes it worse is they don’t always know what to do when they get there. They need to just play their game and forecheck and skate the puck and drive the net. They’re playing inauthentic hockey, like what they know is wrong and they think they can’t trust their instincts.
Half of the season they are just dumping and changing lines, this is insanely bad hockey. Larkin is content with 5v4 goals and blue line protection. Neutral zone is the worst, our D-men can’t get out of the zone and we are not protecting the entry that good either. Season was great due to Gibson and Mo-Ed playing lights out. Our only offense is Cat – Kane combo.
What’s colder than cold… ice cold